Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for May 30 - June 5, 2024
Written by
| Go up | 50% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 33% |
| Go down | 17% |
Expect rates to increase in the coming week, say the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 50 percent of respondents predict rates to rise, 33 percent expect rates to hold steady and 17 percent predict rates will drop.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.17 percent as of May 29, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, up from last week’s average of 7.09.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of May 30 - June 5, 2024
| Go up | 50% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 33% |
| Go down | 17% |
Tepid demand at Treasury auctions and an update to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure on May 31 pose the risk of rates moving up in [the] coming days.
— Greg McBride
Bankrate
50% say rates will go up
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates are going up this week. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated this week that he was looking for “many more months of positive inflation data” before he would be in favor of a rate cut. His sentiments echo those of other Fed officials who have indicated that rates will need to stay higher for longer and that patience was needed. Estimates for the first rate cut by the Fed have now been pushed back to November. This ongoing hawkish tone has caused bond yields to rise and will likely continue to do so until there is fresh economic data revealing that inflation is moderating.
Derek Egeberg
Branch Manager, Guild Mortgage , Yuma , Arizona
Higher. The slight reprieve we experienced was short-lived. Inflation is still the word to watch with respect to rates, which is not reported enough. There are 66 million Americans on Social Security, or 1 out of every 5 Americans. Social Security increases are determined by the average inflation in the third quarter compared to last year. This year, SSA projected an increase of 2.7 percent. For a gentleman that I talked with that would be a $70 a month raise. However, in July of 2024, the same gentleman’s Supplemental Health Insurance premium will increase [by] $59 or 18.5 percent from last year. That leaves only [a] $11 per month increase to cover living expense increases of which food and energy are not part of the inflation calculation. Rates must go up to slow the seen and unseen inflationary items.
Allison Kaminaga
Lecturer of Mathematics and Economics, Bryant University , Smithfield , RI
I expect mortgage rates to trend slightly higher this week in light of a relatively weak Treasury auction and communication from some Fed officials, which caused bond yields to rise. Mortgage rates will likely also respond to the upcoming inflation report on Friday.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Tepid demand at Treasury auctions and an update to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure on May 31 pose the risk of rates moving up in [the] coming days.
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, Licensed Lender, Engel & Voelkers
For the week ahead, my prediction is to see rates hedge up. The market looks a little dicey after hearing in detail from the Fed’s May meeting notes. Even though we already knew what was said, the cold reality is many of the members of The Federal Reserve have growing concerns over inflation. With a strong labor market, the measures the Fed has taken to curb inflation have not helped. Before we see any rate cuts, we will need to see [a] softening in the labor market.
Elizabeth Rose
Mortgage planner, Legacy Mortgage , Dallas , TX
Rates will be higher. It’s a busy week for economic data, much of which revolves around the hot topic of inflation. Many indicators are pointing to continued pressure, and even if we see a small improvement, it likely will not be enough to lift the bond market. There is an exception — a big miss on GDP to the downside would influence the market and then we could see a market rally.
17% say rates will go down
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I’m anticipating a decrease in rates in the coming week as investors react to the most recent PCE inflation metrics.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates will go down. Here's a parody of "Suite: Judy Blue Eyes," the 1969 Crosby, Stills and Nash hit played at Woodstock. "It's getting to the point; Jay is no fun anymore. He is sorry. Sometimes, he talks so badly we must cry out loud. He is lonely. Bears are yours, bulls are mine, Fed is what it is. Jay makes it hard." A few too many forecasters see higher rates while ignoring signs of global liquidity and growth troubles. Meanwhile, we wait for the first Fed ease on September 18.
33% say unchanged–
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
For the last three weeks, 10-year Treasurys have traded in a very narrow range. This has resulted in very little movement in mortgage rates. This week is shaping up to be pretty much the same. Thus, we should expect no significant change in long-term mortgage rates for next week.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Markets are assuming that the Fed will cut the overnight rate only one time during the rest of 2024. Rates will be flat for the rest of 2024.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Unchanged. Now that rates have returned to the levels we saw prior to the runup leading to the last Fed announcement, I expect them to stay relatively unchanged. I also expect that there will be some vacillation in the 6.6 percent to 7.0 percent range, based on market forces.